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Tourism Towards 2030: 3,3% yearly growth

The European Tourism Futures Insitutes’ 2011 Tourism Futures Conference was opened by Márcio Favilla Luca de Paula, Executive Director for Competitiveness, External Relations and Partnerships at UNWTO. Mr. Favilla presented the UN World Tourism Report report Tourism Towards 2030 which had been issued shortly before the conference. Main conclusion of the report: global tourism will see a sustained growth between 2010-2030 but at a slower pace than in previous decades.

The European Tourism Futures Insitutes’ 2011 Tourism Futures Conference was opened by Márcio Favilla Luca de Paula, Executive Director for Competitiveness, External Relations and Partnerships at UNWTO. Mr. Favilla presented the UN World Tourism Report report Tourism Towards 2030  which had been issued shortly before the conference. Main conclusion of the report: global tourism will see a sustained growth between 2010-2030 but at a slower pace than in previous decades.

Tourism will reach the number of 1,8 billion tourist arrivals by 2030. UNWTO predicts that Europe will still be the leading tourist destination in two decades, with continued growth in absolute figures, though established destinations will lose market share especially to Asian tourism. On the other hand, the impact of emerging markets will be relative, for a more or less stable 80% of tourism will still take place within the same region.

UNWTO forecasts are based upon a causal econometric model with GDP growth, as a proxy for traveller affluence and business travel potential, and travel costs as variables. A change in assumptions would lead to more modest growth prospects.

The conclusions stress tourism’s potential for economic and social development, because of which it may be an important weapon for poverty reduction. UNWTO therefore seeks to continue creating and raising awareness and to mainstream tourism in the political agenda.

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